Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant. 相似文献
Atlantic salmon reared in recirculating aquaculture system (RAS) may lead to inappropriately high stocking density, because fish live in a limited space. Finding the suitable stocking density of Atlantic salmon reared in RAS is very important for RAS industry. In this paper, the influence of stocking density on growth and some stress related physiological factors were investigated to evaluate the effects of stocking density. The fish were reared for 220 days at five densities (A: 24 kg/m3; B: 21 kg/m3; C: 15 kg/m3; D: 9 kg/ m3 and E: 6 kg/m3 ). The results show that 30 kg/m3 might be the maximum density which RAS can afford in China. The stocking densities under 30 kg/m3 have no effect on mortality of Atlantic salmon reared in RAS. However, the specific growth rate (SGR), final weight and weight gain in the high density group were significantly lower than the lower density groups and middle density groups. Moreover, feed conversion rate (FCR) had a negative correlation with density. Plasma hormone T3 and GH showed significant decrease with the increase of the stocking density of the experiment. Furthermore, thyroid hormone (T3), GH (growth hormone) activities were decreased with stocking density increase. However, plasma cortisol, GOT (glutamic oxalacetic transaminase) and GPT (glutamic pyruvic transaminase) activities were increase with stocking density increase. And the stocking density has no effects on plasma lysozyme of Atlantic salmon reared in RAS. These investigations would also help devise efficient ways to rear adult Atlantic salmon in China and may, in a way, help spread salmon mariculture in China.
